A new romantic comedy arrives
The Kartik Aaryan–Ananya Panday starrer has finally reached theatres, bringing with it plenty of buzz and curiosity about how it will perform at the box office. Trade analyst Rohit Jaiswal has shared his exclusive take on the film’s budget, break-even point and the numbers it must hit to be called a success.
Budget — how much was spent
Rohit Jaiswal’s estimate: The production budget is around ₹75 crore, with prints and advertising (P&A) adding roughly ₹20 crore. That puts the film’s total cost close to ₹95 crore.
Rohit points out that non-theatrical revenues — satellite, OTT and music rights — will likely cover a portion of this cost, easing some pressure off theatrical collections. But theatrical performance still remains crucial for a clear “hit” tag.
How much it needs at the box office to be a hit
Rohit gives two practical scenarios, depending on how much non-theatrical revenue the makers have already secured:
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Realistic scenario (with pre-sales):
If satellite and OTT rights fetch about ₹30–40 crore, the film will still need roughly ₹120–140 crore gross India lifetime collections to be comfortably profitable and earn a “hit” label. This assumes distributor shares and standard splits with exhibitors.
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Conservative scenario (minimal pre-sales):
Without significant non-theatrical income, the film would need closer to ₹180–200 crore gross domestically to be a definite hit, because the entire production and marketing outlay would have to be recovered from box office alone.
Short-term targets Rohit recommends
- Opening day: A healthy start would be in the ₹10–15 crore range.
- Opening weekend: Aim for ₹30–45 crore — a strong weekend will determine footfalls in week two.
- First week: Crossing ₹60–80 crore in week one would set the film on the path to the realistic break-even mark.
What will decide its fate?
- Word of mouth: For a romantic comedy, audience reaction and social buzz after day one matter hugely.
- Music and promotions: Catchy songs and effective marketing can increase footfalls beyond core fan groups.
- Competition and release pattern: Other releases, holidays or regional blockbusters can either help or hurt momentum.
- Urban vs mass appeal: Kartik has a strong urban pull while Ananya’s casting can tilt the film toward youth; how both segments respond will shape lifetime numbers.
Final take
Rohit Jaiswal’s reading is clear: the film has the ingredients to do well, but box office fate will depend on immediate audience response and how much non-theatrical business the makers have already locked in. If the movie posts a solid opening and gains positive word of mouth, breakeven becomes achievable sooner — and a true “hit” label is within reach.